Forecasters Watch Leslie And Disturbance Off North Carolina

posted by Operation Storm Watch - 

Miami, Fla. (970 WFLA)- 1. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms on its north side. 

 Satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.  However, this system could still become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward.  

By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. 

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight.   In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side.

However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation.  This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. 

Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone.  

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.

After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Graphic Credit: NHC Miami 

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