Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

posted by John Conrad - 

Miami, Fla. (970 WFLA)- The area noted by the number 1 shows showers and thunderstorms that are now exhibiting some signs of organization over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, however, there are still no signs of a surface circulation.  

This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula today with limited development.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.  Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development,heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The number 2 is where  a non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Graphic Credit: National Hurricane Center, Miami

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