11pm Update - Hurricane Florence

posted by Operation Storm Watch - 

Here is the very latest information on Hurricane Florence, including projected track, wind speed, arrival of winds, and areas that could experience a flash flood. 

11PM NHC Hurricane Florence update: 140 mph Category 4 storm. "The track has shifted slightly to the west 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W

ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico

Rivers


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light

Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort


Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states

should monitor the progress of Florence.

The timing graphics are created using the same Monte Carlo wind speed probability model that is currently used to determine the risk of tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds at individual locations – a model in which 1000 plausible scenarios are constructed using the official NHC tropical cyclone forecast and its historical errors. Additional information on this product and the underlying technique is available on the NHC website.

Flash Flooding Potential (Map) 


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was

located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is

moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A motion

toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early

Thursday.  Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late

Thursday into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence

will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and

the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North

Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday

and Friday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday.

While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast

to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).


The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane

Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...


Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and

Bay Rivers...9-13 ft

North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft

Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft

South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft

Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of

35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and

Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week.  This

rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant

river flooding.


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within

the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first

reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and

portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.


$$

Forecaster Pasch


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